A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the country and caused chaos, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in academia but scarcely any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unification or the existing arrangement. Both writes two articles that seek neutrality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and social statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments cover identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they support unity but reject increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent official who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will eventually lose but all factions has got valuable insights to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster should engage with the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
